EARLY POLLS BY INDEPENDENTS
1.WILLIAMS & ASSOCIATES POLLS
With barely two weeks to the 2019 presidential election, prediction is already out that the candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar will win the election.
The prediction is the result of a field work conducted by the pollster, Williams and Associates – information about which was posted on the website of the company on Monday afternoon.
Williams and Associates had, in a similar field work in 2015, predicted that defeat of the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential election in Nigeria.
Information posted on the website of the company, shows that it deployed the same methodology used in the 2015 prediction to conduct the field work for 2019 election. The activity was conducted between January 11 and January 16, 2019 across all the six geo-political zones of Nigeria.
The result of the poll shows that the PDP candidate, Atiku will win other candidates in the election with 45 per cent of the total vote cast, 12 per cent higher than his closest opponent, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, who got 33 per cent.
The breakdown of the results as published on the website of the company can linked via: www.willaimspolls.com/web_documents/williams_associates_polling_results_jan_2019.
According to the result, 64 per cent of respondents disapprove that President Buhari has done his job well enough to deserve re-election.
Similarly, the contentious issues that will shape the direction of the election are unemployment, poverty, corruption, insecurity in that order.
While responding to a question on whether respondents expect the economic situation next year to get better or worse, a whooping 53 per cent are pessimistic on the future of the economy.
Also, the polls showed that there is an 11 per cent improvement on the number of people who will turn out to vote in the 2019 presidential election, over the turn out for the 2015 election. And 80 per cent of the respondents say that they have already collected their Permanent Voter Card (PVC).
Fifty-four (54) per cent of the respondents also say that regardless of who they support in the election, Atiku stands a better chance of winning the election compared to 38 per cent who believe that incumbent President Buhari will win.
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2. How Nigerians May Vote, State By State
BY THISDAY
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*North-West*
In the Kano, for instance, the race pictures a 65 per cent victory for Buhari and 35 per cent for Atiku, In Kaduna, while Buhari is likely to get 55 per cent of the votes cast, Atiku may post just 45 per cent. The race in Katsina is a no-contest as Buhari is sure to secure 70 per cent to Atiku’s 30 per cent.
In Sokoto, Buhari manages an edge over Atiku with 55 to 45 per cent sharing, but in Zamfara, the contest promises a 50-50 contest. Kebbi looks comfortable for Buhari with a 60 per cent advantage over Atiku’s 40 per cent.
Thus, in the North-west, Buhari is sure of victory in at least five states, albeit with varying winning percentages, with a draw in one with Atiku.
Buhari is certain to prevail in Jigawa with a 60/40 mergin over Atiku.
*North-East*
The dynamics in North East varies differently from the North West, because here, in Bauchi for example, Buhari is sure of some 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40, while in Borno and in spite of the growing insurgency, the votes will still go the way of Buhari, also with 60 to 40 per cent voting.
Atiku will put up a good showing in Adamawa with a 65 per cent advantage, leaving Buhari with 35 per cent. Moving on to Yobe, Buhari is positioned to score 60 per cent, leaving 40 for Atiku and the same equation is shared in Gombe – 60/40 – also in favour of Atiku. But the Taraba contest is a different one as it sees Atiku coasting home with 70 per cent and 30 for Buhari.
Here in the North East, both candidates would have a very tight race with the states shared three each.
*North -Central*
The battle for North Central appears an all-Atiku affair, because Benue is determined to deliver Atiku with 70 per cent, while leaving 30 per cent for Buhari. Plateau, although slightly tough, would also deliver Atiku with 55 per cent, while conceding 45 per cent to Buhari. A repeat of this is likely in Nasarawa, where Atiku might go home with 55 per cent and Buhari, 45 per cent.
Kogi State’s battle also looks good for Atiku even though with the same 55/45 sharing formula. But Niger might go the way of Buhari with 55 per cent to Atiku’s 45 per cent. However, Kwara is solidly PDP and would deliver Atiku but with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent.
The summary here is five states for Atiku and one for Buhari.
*South-West*
Considered the real battleground because of the number of votes that is up for grab, the race in South-west is unavoidably tight. In Oyo, for example, Buhari will certainly top with 55 per cent, while Atiku gets the remaining 45 per cent of the vote count. But in Osun, the situation is too close to call and might flip either way. Is a 50/50 chance. The Osun equation is unlikely to be repeated in Ondo, which may give Buhari 55 per cent and Atiku 45 per cent.
Buhari appears comfortable in Ekiti, where he may likely get his highest votes in the zone with 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40 per cent. Interestingly, however, Ogun too may go the way of Atiku with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent, because of the many factors that are currently playing out in the state. But the Lagos battle is a 50-50 ratio. The dynamics are quite intricate.
Curiously, the South-west goes the way of Atiku with three states to Buhari’s two, while drawing in one, Lagos.
*South-East*
Further South, the battle for the soul of South-east is almost predictable even without the enabling field work. This is because the entire zone would go the way of PDP, although with different percentages accruable to each state.
Starting with Imo, the heartland of the South-east, Atiku is sure of at least 60 per cent of the votes with 40 per cent concession to Buhari. The same ratio is obtainable in Abia, God’s own state: 60-40 in favour of Atiku. Ebonyi too is sharing her votes in the same 60-40 pattern, also in favour of Atiku, while Enugu, which is South-east safest state for the PDP, boasts 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. In Anambra, where Peter Obi’s home-zone advantage is certain to work for Atiku, the PDP candidate stands to get 60 per cent votes to Buhari’s 40 per cent. The final analysis in this zone sees Atiku clearing all the five states.
*South-South*
Similar to what obtains in South-east, the entire South-south too might go the way of PDP, with votes contingent on their voting strengths.
Rivers promises to deliver the PDP with a percentage of 80 to 20 in favour of Atiku, while Cross River will post 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. Akwa Ibom, despite the current state of play, will still deliver PDP with 60 per cent and concede 40 to Buhari.
Edo will deliver the PDP with 55 per cent, leaving Buhari with the remaining 45 per cent. In Delta too, the PDP will post some 75 per cent for Atiku and 25 per cent for Buhari, while Bayelsa, though with a relatively small voting strength, will hugely deliver Atiku’s PDP with 80 per cent, leaving the remaining 20 per cent for Buhari.
The South-south analysis also sees Atiku clearing the entire six states. As for the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, it looks like a 50/50 chance for the two candidates. And may go either way.
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3. THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Nigeria In brief
A general election on February 16th is expected to yield a change in government, although the poll itself, and particularly the prospect of a messy election dispute, comes with significant downside risks to political stability.
Our baseline forecast is for Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party to win outright, averting crisis. He will come to power with a sweeping free market agenda, although the overhaul that this implies will be too monumental to implement in full.
http://country.eiu.com/nigeria
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