Election Polls, Predictions & Analyses

The polling agencies, media and clairvoyants have started publishing the reports of their researches on the outcome of next week’s presidential elections.

In Europe and North America, polls are quite useful in directing attention to possible outcomes of elections. This is because such polls are scientifically conducted and are also based on ‘everything being equal’. 

In our clime, things are hardly ever equal nor do they remain the same so it can be difficult to predict election outcome, especially where and when there’s possibility of interference that can affect a free and fair outcome – interference or rigging by either incumbent or opposition forces.

In election an year, much of the polling by should focus on people’s issue preferences, engagement in the election, opinions about the candidates, views of the campaign and voter preferences. The polls should include questions about party identification, past voting behavior or voter reactions to events.

Although election polls attract a great deal of attention for their ability to predict the outcome of elections, their most important function is to help journalists and citizens understand the meaning of the campaign and the election.

Polls help to explain, among other things, the issues that are important, how the quality of candidate may affect voters’ decisions, and how much support there is for particular policy changes.

When conducted properly, public opinion polls can be generally accurate. 

Conducting good survey research, however, is no easy task. To ensure accuracy, the questions on a survey must be asked of a group of people – what pollsters call a sample which is representative of the larger population.

As a general rule, the greater the number of people interviewed, the more accurate the prediction will be. Everything else being equal, an election poll of 100,000 out of two million voters is more likely to produce good results than one of 1,000 out of the same number.

We should not take poll results for granted, even in Nigeria. A major poll in the 2015 general elections actually predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari over incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan and that was what happened. 

That polling company is Williams and Associates which has now this time predicted victory for Atiku Abubakar over Buhari. The Economist Intelligence Unit has also predicted same. Everything being equal. But will it ever be so and can it be?

Epa.com.ng will be publishing poll results from different credible agencies starting from today in our opinions link. Look out for it.

Image credit: iPhone Screenshots

Ogie Eboigbe, veteran journalist, broadcaster and public affairs specialist writes and analyses current and historical issues with a ‘wise pen’.