Early this year, Lagos and indeed Nigerians were warned that the rains would come with a vengeance this year and we should all be prepared for the worst flooding ever.
Lagos in particular, we were told, would experience about 270 days of rainfall, with the maximum annual rainfall predicted to be 1,750 millimeters. Residents were warned to prepare for likely consequences of extended days of rainfall which was predicted to begin on March 19th and end November 22nd 2020.
These predictions by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMET, have not disappointed. It has been flooding galore anytime it rained and the rains have also been more than the usual, resulting in flooding.
NIMET’s Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) is a usual and regular forecast meant to allay fears of residents and prepare them ahead for the likely consequences of rainfall, chief of which is flooding.
For coastal states like Lagos and others, another contributory factor to possible flooding is the rise in sea level, as anytime there is high tidal movement, it may “latch” the discharged points of drainage channels and until it recedes, there will be no discharge. Such occurrences also cause reverse flows, resulting in flooding.
Other causes of floods include the release of water from dams within and outside Nigeria.
Aside the public warnings, it is difficult to see what efforts the governments at various levels put in place in preparation for the annually increasing rains and the attendant flooding which usually affect citizens adversely. For instance, what kind of relationship does the Nigerian government have with neighbouring countries who have built dams on rivers that flow through Nigeria to the sea? Nearer the people, do states also relate and discuss with their counterparts to have properly planned release of water from dams so that such occurrences do not result in avoidable flooding in other states and hardship to occupants of land and homes in the path of the released water?
It has become a regular sing-song by federal and state governments or their agencies to advise residents of flood-prone areas to relocate or abandon their homes during the flood period. It is also commendable that officials of the Meteorological Agency and Commissioners responsible for the environment in different states call up the media every year and provide them with statistics of the inches of water expected and how the dams are to be opened to let out water by some neighbouring states or even countries. The usual advice they give to residents likely to be affected is for them to relocate to higher grounds. One gets the impression that such residents will just pack their property and move to already prepared houses or shelters or caves up in the hills!
This annual advice is pitiless, unrealistic and unsympathetic. Many of these families and individuals have built their homes on approved sites, including housing estates. Some of the residents are also tenants who have paid their landlords rent for a period, not aware the house is on a flood plain or an area where water released from dam will sweep through.
Just as NIMET did in March, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) also warned us that 102 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 28 states in the country are at the risk of flooding. According to NEMA, 275 local government areas across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory fall within the moderately probable flood risk areas, while the remaining 397 local government areas fall within the low probable flood risk areas.
Earlier in May, in its 2020 Annual Flood Outlook, the Nigeria Hydrological Survey Agency, NIHSA, presented the probable flood scenarios for the year to alert people, especially in flood-prone areas in order to reduce the effects of flooding.
It is a well-known fact that annual floods in some parts of Lagos have its origin from the activities of the Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority who control the release of water from the Oyan Dam which is supposed to be steady and systematic to avoid flooding of the downstream communities. It is not enough to sensitise and advise communities in coastal and low-lying wetland areas to move upward to avert needless loss of lives and property when the need arises. They do not own an extra abode upland. It is left to governments and their agencies to make such arrangements for residents.
The impending flood from increase in rainfall should not be treated lightly as if it is a usual occurrence. The devastation to house and farm land will be horrendous. It will also impact on businesses, family life and children’s schooling. Health is another thing that it will affect so the entire fabric of human endeavour will feel the impact of flooding.
The most recent alert by Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) last week raised an even higher alarm that massive floods will sweep through many parts of the country between September and October and as usual, residents of flood-prone areas were advised to begin relocation because heavy rains will precipitate the flooding leading to destruction of property and likely loss of lives.
Director-General of the agency, Dr. Clement Nze, reiterated what NEMA said in May that 275 local government areas of the 774 will be moderately hit by the flood while 102 councils will be worse-hit. Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Edo and Kogi are on top of the list of states to witness heavy flooding. The others are Ogun, Ekiti, Kwara, Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states.
All the local government areas in Lagos, except Epe and many parts of Ogun State, will be badly affected. NIHSA said governors of the states had been advised to begin immediate evacuation of residents in areas to be affected.
Nze said what was required before now across the country was proper drainage and demolition of structures on flood plains. He said the flooding experienced so far in parts of the country was as a result of constant rainfall. He warned that the effect of any nation in the Niger Basin releasing water from its dam(s) might be too devastating for Nigeria, if nothing was done now.
The month of June is usually the period of effective rainfalls and the beginning of a new hydrological year in the River Niger Basin which covers nine countries – Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroun, Chad, Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. Nigeria is downstream of all the countries in this basin. The months of July, August, September, and October are also known as JASO months signifying heavy rainfall, flooding, and flood disasters in most parts of the country. The floods are often aggravated by the trans-boundary inflow of rivers Niger and Benue from outside the country before they empty into the Atlantic Ocean in Nigeria.
According to Dr. Nze: “As early as June, severe flooding incidents with attendant destructions and loss of lives were recorded in certain parts of the country. This has continued unabated even when the country is still more than two months away from the peak of rains with the attendant flooding incidents associated with those months. NIHSA wishes to use this medium to advise state and local governments, stakeholders, multinational companies and public-spirited individuals and philanthropists that all hands should be on the deck to save the country from the consequences of flood pandemic in the year 2020”.
He warned of the impending disaster: “The country still has many days of rainfall in the course of the year. More floods are still expected in the months of August, September, and October. In the event there is a release of excess water from the dams in other countries upstream rivers Niger and Benue, this will have more negative impact on Nigeria which is located downstream other countries in the Niger Basin. Therefore, blocked drainages and gutters should be cleared, river channels dredged and structures within the waterways and flood plains and flood paths pulled down”.
Is anyone listening to Dr. Nze’s advice?
Have the Federal, States and Local Governments made adequate preparations to protect their citizens from what is coming?
Have the residents themselves been faithfully engaged in clearing their drains to minimize flooding?
Are the relevant agencies of the Lagos, Ogun and other ‘frontline states’ bracing for possible flooding incidents in the coming months?
Can the country afford to suffer another pandemic within a pandemic?
It should not just be the business of warning the residents as usual and waiting for them to act. Let the governments act before the looming doom.
We have heard that Lagos State government, like its affected counterparts, has warned residents of four local government areas, especially those living on flood plains, to vacate their homes immediately. Those in 15 other councils also got the warning but those councils expected to be worst affected are Lagos Mainland, Mushin, Ibeju-Lekki and Ikorodu.
Where do the residents move to? New homes? Under bridges or trees? Warehouses? Underground shelters?
Where?
IMAGE CREDIT: nimet.gov.ng, neme.gov.ng, bbc.com, VOA
Epa Ogie Eboigbe, veteran journalist, broadcaster and public affairs specialist writes on, and analyses current and historical issues with a ‘wise pen’.
You have said it all,we are so complacent with the excuse that other parts of the world go through similar experiences .I think with such in depth analysis we can lead the world on how to manage floods better without upsetting the run of peoples’ daily living but’ NO’ it’s ‘ turenchi’ as usual while situations get worse.