Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: How Long Will It Last?

Last Sunday, 19th January 2025, a ceasefire came into effect to end the 15-month war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The ceasefire was to pave the way for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinians.

The first peaceful action among the two sides saw release of three Israeli women hostages from Gaza and 90 Palestinians from Israeli jails.

The ceasefire deal was brokered by Qatar and offers some hope, though dim, of possible end to the war that has rocked Middle East and brought about almost complete levelling of Gaza by the Israeli Defence Forces, in retaliation for Hamas’ killing of Israelis on 7th October 2023 in Southern Israel.

If the ceasefire continues for the planned six weeks duration, a total of 33 out of the 97 Israeli hostages are expected to be returned home and almost 2000 Palestinians prisoners would be freed.

Uncertainty and pessimism have always been the order of the day with similar ceasefire agreements in the past, in the several wars between Israel and other opponents of its existence so it is not surprising that some still take the current one with a pinch of salt.

The full text of the new details in the agreement does show though, some meticulous planning and dealing that has gone into it.                                                                                                   

Below are the procedures and mechanisms to implement the agreement for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian Prisoners and the return to a sustainable calm which would achieve a permanent ceasefire between the two sides.

  1. Stage two preparations: The parties and the mediators’ objective is to achieve a final consensus to implement the May 27 2024 Agreement on the exchange of hostages and prisoners and return to a sustainable calm which would achieve a permanent ceasefire between the Parties. All procedures in the first stage will continue in stage 2 so long as the negotiations of the conditions of implementing stage 2 are ongoing and the guarantors of this Agreement shall work to ensure that negotiations continue until an agreement is reached.
  • Israeli forces withdrawal: Withdrawal of Israeli forces eastwards from densely populated areas along the borders of the Gaza strip, including Wadi Gaza (Netzarim axis and Kuwait roundabout). The Israeli forces will be deployed in a perimeter (700) metres with an exception at 5 localised points to be increased no more than (400) additional meters that the Israeli side will determine, south and west of the border, and based on the maps agreed upon by both sides which accompany the agreement.
  • Prisoner Exchange:
  1. The 9 ill and wounded from the list of 33 will be released in exchange for the release of 110 Palestinian prisoners with life sentences.
    1. Israel will release 1000 Gazan detainees from 8 October 2023 that were not involved in 7 October 2023.
    1. The Elderly (men over 50) from the list of 33 will be released in exchange for an exchange key of 1:3 life sentences + 1:27 other sentences.
    1. Ebra Mangesto and Hesham el-Sayed – will be released according to an exchange key of 1:30, as well as 47 Shalit prisoners.
    1. A number of Palestinian prisoners will be released abroad or in Gaza based on lists agreed upon between both sides.
  • Philadelphi corridor:
    • The Israeli side will gradually reduce the forces in the corridor area during stage 1 based on the accompanying maps and the agreement between both sides.
    • After the last hostage release of stage one, on day 42, the Israeli forces will begin their withdrawal and complete it no later than day 50.
  • Rafah Border Crossing:
    • The Rafah crossing will be ready for the transfer of civilians and for the wounded after the release of all women (civilian and soldiers). Israel will work toward the readiness of the crossing as soon as the agreement is signed.
    • Israeli forces will redeploy around the Rafah Crossing according to the attached maps.
    • 50 wounded military individuals will be allowed to cross daily accompanied by (3) individuals. Each individual crossing will require Israeli and Egyptian approval.
    • The crossing will be operated based on the August 2024 discussions with Egypt.
  • Exit of ill and wounded civilians:
    • All ill and wounded Palestinian civilians will be allowed to cross via Rafah border crossing, according to section 12 in the 27 May 2024 agreement.
  • Return of unarmed internally displaced (Netzarim Corridor):
    • The return is agreed based on the 27 May 2024 agreement section 3-a and 3-b.
    • On day 7, the internally displaced pedestrians will be allowed to return north, without carrying arms and without inspection via Rashid Street. On day 22, they will be allowed to return north from the Salahudin Street as well, without inspection.
    • On day 7, vehicles and any non-pedestrian traffic will be allowed to return north of Netzarim corridor after vehicle inspection which will be performed by a private company which will be determined by the mediators in sync with the Israeli side, based on an agreed upon mechanism.
  • Humanitarian aid protocol:
    • Humanitarian aid procedures under the agreement will be done subject to the humanitarian protocol agreed upon under the supervision of the mediators.

There have been several officials on both sides who do not support the ceasefire and are already reacting in several ways.

Several Ministers representing the Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party led by Itamar Ben Gvir stepped down on Sunday from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government because the disagreed with the ceasefire agreement.

The Jewish Power party criticised the agreement, particularly upset with the release of Palestinian prisoners.

The governments of Qatar and Egypt which helped negotiate the ceasefire, as well as western countries like France, the UK and newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump are taking credit for being able to convince the Israeli government to tone down its aggression and abide by the agreement.

It remains to be seen how long the ceasefire will last, and whether Israel, Hamas and its other supporters will work towards lasting peace in the region. There is a lot hanging on this hope.

IMAGE CREDIT: UN, Hope for Gaza

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